The CBO estimated that the 2012 budget deficit will top $1 trillion for the fourth consecutive year under the Obama administration.  The CBO estimated that the 2012 budget deficit will be approximately $1.1 trillion in a year that President Obama will be making the case to the American people that he deserves four more years in office.

President Obama is adding to the budget deficit nearly four times faster than President Bush.  During the first four years of the Bush administration, just over $1.4 trillion was added to the national debt.  With the 2012 budget deficit estimate from the CBO, President Obama is on track to have added over $5 trillion to the national debt.  At that level of deficit spending, President Obama is adding to the national debt just over 3.6 times the debt added during Bush’s first term in office.

The Obama administration likes to consider the 2009 $1.4 trillion deficit as part of the Bush years.  However, that argument forgets the inconvenient fact that Obama signed the $800 billion stimulus bill in 2009 adding to the deficit.  Democrats also like to say that President Clinton handed Bush a surplus, but that argument would have Bush responsible for the budget during his first year in office and have Bush responsible for the budget in the first year of Obama’s presidency.

The CBO estimate also contained more bad news for President Obama as the CBO predicted lower GDP growth in 2012 due in part to higher taxes and reduced spending.  The CBO also predicted unemployment to head back toward 8.9% in 2012, over 9% in 2013, and stay above 7% until 2015.

Look for President Obama to indicate how much worse it would have been had he not been in office and how much worse it will be if the American people send him to the unemployment line this year.  I think we should take the chance.

According to the documents released, Mitt Romney made $21.7 million in 2010 and $20.9 million in 2011 for a total of $42.6 over two years.  The majority of money that Romney earned was in the form of capital gains, dividends, and interest from investments.

Romney paid $3 million in taxes in 2010 or roughly 13.8%.  The 2011 Romney estimated tax return indicates that Romney will $3.23 million on $20.9 million of income or roughly 15.5%.

The Romney tax returns also indicate that he gave away $2.98 million in charity in 2010 and $4 million in 2011 or over 16% of his total income over the last 2 years.  The average $3.5 million in charitable contributions is in stark contrast to the 2008 release of documents that indicated that Joe Biden gave an average of $369 to charity per year over 10 years.  Note that there is not a missing “thousand” or “million” after that $369.

The DNC and the President along with their alies in the media will attempt to paint Mitt Romney as a greedy person in the 1% that pays a lower tax rate than the working middle class.  However, that attack rings somewhat hollow.  According the Tax Foundation, the effective tax rate for those in the between the top 25% and the bottom 50% has been below 10% since 1987.  It is important to note that effective tax rate is not a tax payers top bracket, but the total amount of income tax paid after all deductions and adjustments to income.

You can estimate your effective tax rate by the numbers on your current W2 and compare it to Mitt Romney.  Take your income tax withheld (box2) and divide it by your Wages tips and other (box1).  To be more accurate, take your box 2 and subtract last years refund (or add payment) prior to dividing assuming no major changes from the prior year.  To calculate your true effective tax rate, take your total tax due on your tax return (what you should have paid based upon your AGI) and divide it by your total income before deductions.

This endorsement adds to the speculation that Romney could pick Bob McDonnell as a VP running mate.

McDonnell would be a good pick as a running mate as he is a southern swing state conservative governor that would help Romney in the general election.  McDonnell also enjoys strong support from conservatives in Virginia.

However, the lame stream media and the rest of the leftists would have a field day with a Romney McDonnell ticket.  The media ridicules conservatives and Republican candidates without fear or taste.  Just imagine all the posters of Mitt and Bob made up to look like Ronald McDonald and the SNL skits.  The Daily Show writers have probably already written 100 jokes just in case.

If Romney picks Bob McDonnell as his running mate, the Romney campaign should prepare itself for months of clown comparisons.

Cain said that we would be suspending his campaign due to the impact of false accusations on his family, his supporters, and his ability to continue to raise funds to continue on.

Cain announced his “Plan B” which would continue to be a voice for the people and continue to advocate for 999, energy independence, and foreign policy.  He also made several references to TheCainSolutions.com.  At this time, the site is only collecting email address and will announce when it goes live to supporters.

Cain also indicated that he would be making an endorsement in the near future.  It was reported that Cain had made phone calls to the other candidates in the last 24 hours.

Earlier today, Intrade was trending 95% for a Herman Cain to be the next candidate to drop out of the race.

Herman Cain has lost support in the polls largely due to allegations of sexual harassment and a 13 year affair.  Recently, Cain admitted to paying the bills over a several year period of the woman that is accusing him of a multi-year affair. 

Herman Cain has watched his poll numbers drop over the last few weeks resulting in a third place in national polls with 14% trailing Romney (20%) and Gingrich (26%).

The conventional wisdom is that Herman Cain dr0pping out of the race will benefit Newt Gingrich who has surged in the polls over the last several weeks.

It is important to note that the number of jobs gained or lost by the economy is determined by a survey of established payrolls while the unemployment rate is calculated from a survey of households.  A survey is conducted of employers to determine if they added or subtracted from their payrolls to determine the number of jobs added by the economy.  To get the unemployment rate, a survey is conducted of households to determine if they are employed, looking for work, or have given up looking for work.

This explains why employers adding 100k jobs one month can lead to an increase to the unemployment rate while adding 100k jobs in another month can decrease the unemployment rate.

So, what accounted for the drop in the unemployment rate from 9% to 8.6% in October?  It was not the 120 thousand jobs added.  According the the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 315 thousand people left the work force in October and the number of people not in the labor forced increased by 487 thousand.  Had those people stayed in the work force, the unemployment rate would have remained 9% or dropped to 8.9% depending upon the calculation.  If the workforce participation rate been the same as when Obama took office, the current unemployment rate would be 11%.

Look for the administration to hype the drop in unemployment while not mentioning the number of people who have given up.  As a reminder, here is a great chart that shows the Obama administrations prediction of where things would have been with and without the stimulus and the actual numbers.

Update: Here is another chart showing the labor force participation rate barely above a 30-year low.

Senator Reid invoked the so called nuclear option this week to block a vote on the Obama jobs bill, the American Jobs Act.  By using the nuclear option to block a vote on the Obama jobs bill, Senator Reid blindly handed opponents of Obamacare a clear path to repeal Obamacare.

Assuming that Republicans take control of the Senate and the White House in 2012, they would have to overcome a Democrat filibuster in order to repeal Obamacare.  However, with Reid’s actions, a Republican controlled House, Senate, and White House could easily repeal Obamacare with a simple majority vote.

With President Obama falling in the polls, high unemployment, and Senate Democrats defending twice as many seats as Republicans, Republicans have a good shot at taking the Senate and White House in 2012.  If that happens, Republicans will almost certainly repeal Obamacare which remains unpopular in polls.

If Republicans are able to repeal Obamacare following the 2012 elections, former President Obama and Democrats will have Senator Reid to thank.

President Obama has been demanding that the congress pass his American Jobs Act.  However, the Obama jobs bill is opposed by Senate Republicans and several Senate Democrats.

Hoping to spare President Obama an embarrassing defeat of the Obama jobs bill, Senator Reid invoked the so-called nuclear option to block Senate Republicans from offering the American Jobs Act up for a vote.

It is interesting to note that when the Democrats were in the minority in the Senate, Senator Reid decried the potential use of the nuclear option as an unconstitutional abuse of power.  At the time, Senate Democrats were using the filibuster to block votes on several of President Bush’s Supreme Court nominees.  However, now that Senator Reid leads the majority party in the Senate, he believes that the nuclear option is an acceptable procedure.

At any one of the upcomming jobs speaches that the President will give, he will point the finger at Senate Republicans for not supporting the American Jobs Act.  However, he does not need to look any futher that his own party.

Today, the Federal Government can pay for spending by claiming a savings on money they never intended to spend in the first place.  For example, included in the deficit reduction proposed by President Obama are the savings of not being in Iraq at last years troop levels 10 years from now.  Some of that money is then used for other spending or in phony savings.  You can think of this as assuming that you will continue to pay your mortgage even after you have paid it off and using that money to pay for things now.

According to the Senators, the Honest Budget Act:

• Requires both houses of Congress to adopt a binding budget resolution or face a 60-vote threshold to move any spending bills through Congress (if they don’t create a budget, they need 60 votes to pass any spending);
• Makes it more difficult to label routine expenditures “emergency spending”;
• Eliminates phony rescissions (using phony spending projections to create savings used to pay for other items);
• Makes real the fake federal pay freeze;
• Disallows timing shifts, which bill drafters use to make a bill appear deficit-neutral within a certain time frame. (think of Obamacare)

Not only with this make it harder for Washington to hide spending and continue to trick the American people, but the Honest Budget Act would also help save money.  As point out at HotAir, …. Since 2005, budget gimmicks have enabled more than $350 billion worth of additional deficit spending.

It will be interesting to see the response and opposition to this bill or if Harry Reid (D-Nevada) will even allow it to come up for a vote.

Perry announced his presidential bid last Saturday during the Ames Straw Poll stealling some of the coverage from Bachmann who narrowly beat out Ron Paul to win the Ames Straw Poll.

Perry also ended up in an unofficial 6th place in the Ames Straw Poll even though he did not actively participate in the poll.

Hot Air takes a look at the internals of the Rasmussen poll:

Perry scores highest among men (32%) and women (25%) than any of his competitors. Ron Paul scores best among young voters by a wide margin (29%), but Perry is the only other candidate in double digits (17%). Perry wins all of the other age demographics, and he also scores highest among Republicans (29%) and non-Republicans (28%). Perry also wins every income demographic, above the $40K level with 31% or more of the vote.

 This could signal good news for Perry as many GOP voters have been somewhat unimpressed with the current field of candidates. 

Look for the MSM to start the predictable barrage of negative stories about Rick Perry as the race shapes up with Perry in the top tier.

Although the Ames straw poll does not have a roll in officially declaring the nominee for Iowa, it is an early indication of how well a candidate will do in the Iowa caccusses.  As pointed out by a Jazz Shaw at HotAir, “It’s also a test of how well you can build your organizational structure and what kind of image you can project”.

The Ames straw poll official results show Pawlenty finishing a disappointing 3rd place after spending a lot of time and money in Iowa in the hopes of winning the Ames straw poll.

Pawlenty made his announcement on ABC’s “This Week,” after breifing supporters about his decision on a conference call.